MODELING FOR TOURISM THROUGH ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find an appropriate model for tourism data of Pakistan.
Log tourism has been used as a dependent variable while Financial Exchange Rate,
Gross Domestic Product, Employment, Visitor Exports and Investment are taken as
independent variables. Data has been collected from secondary source Tourism
Department of Pakistan and Economic survey of Pakistan 2014, for the period of 2004-
2014. For final model selection, the model selection techniques; all possible
regression, forward selection procedure and backward elimination procedure have
been used. The final selected model can be used for future prediction of tourism.
According to our findings two independent variables; employment and GDP
significantly contribute to tourism. This model can be used for short run predication,
because our data consist of very few years, which is the main hurdle that this model
cannot be applied for long run prediction.